We continue to carefully consider the report and recommendations made by the previous Environment, Climate Change and Land Reform Committee as regards regional marine planning and are working to finalise our formal response, which will be published this Autumn.

I refer the member to the answer to question S6W-09901 on‎ 15 August 2022. All answers to written Parliamentary Questions are available on the Parliament's website, the search facility for which can be found at https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/written-questions-and-answers

There is an existing Ferries Plan in place until December 2022.

The costs of global failure to address the climate emergency would be enormous and the Scottish Government is committed to leading the way in delivering early action to reduce emissions while at the same time positioning Scotland to secure and share the opportunities from the transition. The next Climate Change Plan, a draft of which will be published next year, will include costs of delivering emissions reductions to meet the statutory targets between 2025 and 2040. The Scottish Government has not set out a pathway to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045 and hence does not yet have a basis for a cost assessment of achieving that goal. The Climate Change Committee suggest “the net costs of the transition (including upfront investment, ongoing running costs and costs of financing) will be less than 1% of GDP over the entirety of 2020-2050”. We believe this is a reasonable estimate while noting that the cost totals and profile for Scotland may differ due to our stricter statutory targets and the likelihood that our pathway to net zero may diverge from that taken by the UK as a whole.

Scotland has a varied building stock, with many different ages and types of properties. Homes are built with various levels of insulation, with many having altered the building fabric since construction (for example by installing double glazing). This makes defining a ‘non-retrofitted home’ challenging. The most consistent approach to comparing the running cost of a heat pump to the running cost of a gas boiler is to compare the relative cost of heat from each system, taking into account their differing efficiencies.

Under the recently announced Energy Price Guarantee, the unit rate of gas for the average consumer is 10.3 p/kWh, compared to 34.0 p/kWh for electricity. While estimates of the energy efficiency of heat pumps vary, air source heat pumps are typically considered to be two to three times more efficient than gas boilers. Therefore, we estimate broadly that a home with the average heat demand would face an estimated annual cost of around £1,900 using a gas boiler, compared to around £2,000 using an air source heat pump. This estimate is illustrative and subject to uncertainty. It is based on average household demand for heat and varies in line with assumed levels of gas and electricity prices, as well as the assumed efficiencies of the respective heating systems.

The Heat in Buildings Strategy proposes to set minimum energy efficiency standards alongside heating system change, so that the energy efficiency of our housing stock will be improved ahead of, or in tandem with, a zero direct emissions heating system being installed. This approach will reduce the running cost of zero direct emissions heating systems, such as heat pumps. We therefore don’t expect that heat pumps will be installed in properties unless the energy efficiency is at an appropriate level, which is currently being developed through external research.

Electricity policy and regulation is reserved to the UK Government. The Scottish Government is calling on the UK Government to take urgent action to rebalance gas and electricity prices such that the running costs of zero direct emission heating systems are more favourable compared with fossil fuel incumbents.

Following the clearing announcement on the 22 August 2022, the ScotWindleasing round has identified 20 offshore wind projects with a potential overall capacity of 27.6GW. Based on the Supply Chain Development Statements (SCDS) submitted with the leasing applications, developers have committed to invest around £1.4bn per project.

Before construction, these projects will go through project development and consenting processes, respond to geographical and technological requirements, and find a route to market. For this reason, it is not possible to have a clear indication at this time of what will be constructed and the combined generating capacity.

The Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind Energy (SMP-OWE) assessed a potential generation figure of 10GW and therefore does not comment on additional generation or impacts. The SMP-OWEis subject to an Iterative Plan Review (IPR) process, which allows Scottish Government to review the conclusions of the Plan against new available information. Through the IPR process we will consider the impacts of the new potential generation figure of 27.6GW.

Japan is a key partner country to Scotland, with numerous shared interests, including renewable energy and the subsea/offshore industry. However, the Scottish Government position on nuclear power is clear – we do not support the building of new nuclear power stations in Scotland under current technologies.

Security of electricity supply is a reserved policy area, delivered through UK Government electricity policy, Ofgem as the independent GB energy regulator, and National Grid ESO (the GB Electricity System Operator), as noted in the response to your question on 25 August.

Scotland has an abundance of renewable electricity generation that exceeds our average annual demand. Our draft Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan will set out further analysis on electricity security, in light of increased decarbonisation of heat and transport.

However, based on current rates of new build development, a ban on the use of direct emission heating systems in new build properties could equate to an additional 100GWh of demand every year. This would add just 0.3% to our total electricity demand remaining well within the margin of our maximum supply capacity of 10GW.

Similarly, based on Transport Scotland’s electricity demand scenarios, the average annual additional electricity demand from EV’s (cars and vans) is just 186GWh for the period 2022 – 2030.

It is also important to highlight that network companies are investing to ensure that our infrastructure can support our transition to net zero. Both Scottish Distribution Network Operators have worked closely with the Scottish Government and other stakeholders to ensure that their business plans reflect the scale and pace of deployment necessary to meet Scotland’s net zero and interim targets.

These plans are being assessed by the energy regulator Ofgem, and we expect a final decision on proposed investments by November this year.

The Scottish Government does not hold the details of ScotRail expenditure broken down by the categories you have requested.

The Scottish Government budget for Rail Passenger Services, which covers both ScotRail and Caledonian Sleeper, has been published as :

2016  £266m

2017  £311m

2018  £183m

2019  £150m

2020  £239m

2021  £370m

2022  £407m

The decision to bring ScotRail under public control avoided the need to run an expensive and inappropriate rail franchising competition. Though widely acknowledged as a failed model, franchise competitions remain the preferred approach in current UK Legislation. Such exercises typically cost in excess of £10m for franchising authorities, as well as the similarly significant costs of each bidder.

As confirmed during my Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee appearance on 15 March 2022, prior to that date, since the decision to proceed with the “Operator of Last Resort” (OLR) option was taken in March 2021, £3.6 million had been spent on the OLR activity.

Final reconciliation figures confirm that £5.5 million has been spent in total on OLR activity, and ScotRail Trains Ltd. was mobilised successfully on 1 April. I am confident you will notice the saving this achieved when compared with a franchising competition.

The Robert Gordon University report – Making the Switch, funded through the North-East Economic Recovery and Skills Fund (NEERSF), estimates between 70,000 and 80,000 people are directly and indirectly employed in the offshore energy sector in Scotland, with around 65% working or based in the North East.

This report highlights over 90% of the workforce has medium to high skills transferability between adjacent energy sectors, such as offshore wind, the use of hydrogen and carbon capture and storage. This indicates the North East is well placed to capitalise on the opportunities associated with the energy transition and could become either a UK or Global Energy Hub, with the expected result of the energy workforce remaining broadly stable or increasing by 2030.

The Scottish Government is supporting this transition from the oil and gas sector to renewables and low carbon through a number of programmes, including, but not limited to, the £75 million Energy Transition Fund and our £500 million Just Transition Fund for the North East and Moray.

The Climate Emergency Skills Action Plan is key to ensuring everyone can benefit from the opportunities a Just Transition can create, whether the requirement is to improve on existing skills or retrain to a new or emerging green job.